Institutional Collapse Predictor

The Institutional Collapse Predictor (ICP) is a core component of the Consciousness Gradient Theory (CGT), proprietary framework for assessing risk and resilience in complex systems.

The ICP has accurately identified institutions at risk of collapse. Powered by CGT’s innovative approach to analysing system dynamics, the ICP delivers actionable insights for decision-makers.

• Our framework accurately distinguished collapse from survival in 14 historical cases (1997–2022), including 9 major collapses and 5 recoveries.

• Nine companies, including FTX, Enron, and Theranos, scored above our critical risk threshold, correctly predicting collapse.

• Five companies, including Apple and Tesla, scored below our recovery threshold, indicating resilience despite crises.

• A clear risk threshold separated collapse from recovery, validated across all cases.

The ICP is part of a broader framework that quantifies system resilience across domains, from institutions to markets and artificial intelligence.

By identifying critical risks, our framework has the potential to avoid losses, as seen in cases like FTX and Enron.

Beyond institutions, our framework assesses AI system capabilities, ranking leading models like Claude and Grok.

Detected significant market volatility in Bitcoin’s 2022 price decline, correctly identifying resilience in network fundamentals.

Interested in our research? Contact us to learn more or collaborate on future validations.

Experimental framework for research only, not investment advice. Consult professionals for financial decisions.